IMF Raises Pakistan's Inflation Forecast for FY2026-27 to 9.9%

[keypoints]

- The IMF has revised Pakistan's inflation forecast for FY2026-27 upward to 9.9%
- The government's budgeted estimate for that year is 8.2%
- The gap shows a difference in the two outlooks
- The higher forecast is linked to the difficulty of controlling prices, the cost of living and economic stability

[/keypoints]

The IMF has revised the Pakistan inflation forecast for FY2026-27 upward to 9.9%. That figure is higher than the 8.2% estimate in the government's budget for the same year.

In this article we set out the two numbers and what the revision is said to underline. Here is everything you need to know.

What the new Pakistan inflation forecast says

The International Monetary Fund's latest projection for FY2026-27 is 9.9%. The government budgeted 8.2%. The account describes the IMF figure as a direct contrast with that budget estimate, and as a sign that the outlooks differ.

It also says the revision underlines the challenge of controlling prices, managing the cost of living and maintaining economic stability. It does not give a month-by-month path, a food-price breakdown or a policy step the IMF is requiring.

Why it matters

Households feel inflation as rent, food and fares, not as a fiscal-year average. A forecast that sits above the budget number is a warning that official planning and the IMF's view are not using the same price path.

• The IMF figure for FY2026-27 is 9.9%
• The budgeted government estimate is 8.2%
• The revision is upward
• The pressures named are prices, the cost of living and economic stability

What these percentages do not tell you

1. They are forecasts for a full fiscal year, not last month's inflation print.
2. They do not say which items will rise fastest.
3. They do not change prices at the shop by themselves.
4. They do not name a new tax or a new interest-rate decision.

What happens next

The next official inflation release, and any revision in a later IMF or budget document, will show whether 9.9% or 8.2% is closer. We will update this article when a newer figure is published.

Our verdict

The Pakistan inflation forecast from the IMF for FY2026-27 is now 9.9%, against a government budget estimate of 8.2%. The gap is the story. The revision does not, by itself, list which prices will move.

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